Tactical voting

Hamble Valley

Our tactical voting recommendation in Hamble Valley:
Vote Labour

Why vote Labour in Hamble Valley?

Hamble Valley is a new constituency formed mostly of western Fareham suburbs and the south east of the previous Eastleigh seat. Had it existed in 2019 it would have had a large Conservative majority. However, polling is indicating that the Conservative position has deteriorated a lot in this area and that the Conservatives are not far ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are only in the lead despite the large drop in support because the progressive vote is divided between Labour and the third-placed Lib Dems. Greens and Lib Dems are not targeting this seat and their voters should back Labour here to inflict a defeat on the Conservatives.

Tactical voting decision based on

Current MP
Polling
Local factors

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About our data

Polling: Voting Intention for Hamble Valley

MRP polling by Survation:

Selector of different research dates
30 Mar
04 Jun
15 Jun
Conservative 37.59%
Labour 32.58%
Liberal Democrats 18.38%
Reform 5.62%
Green 4.35%
Other 1.39%
Updated: 15 June 20:20

Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.

How many people intend to vote tactically in Hamble Valley?

39%

What's happened in Hamble Valley

Energy Bills

56%

Percentage of constituents who are worried about not being able to pay their energy bills in the next year
Source: Survation MRP for 38 Degrees (February 2023)

Food Banks (Local)

128,488

visits (April 2017 - March 2018)

349,400

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Food Banks (Great Britain)

40,898

visits (April 2009 - March 2010)

2,986,203

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Justice

1 in 20

robberies, burglaries, and other thefts solved in your constabulary (June 2019 - June 2022)
Source: Home Office (2019 - 2022)

Ambulance Wait Times

34m 5s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2018)

1h 10m 48s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2023)
Source: NHS England (November 2018 - 2023)

Housing

29,540

people are estimated to be homeless in your region
Source: Shelter (December 2023)

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