Tactical voting

Kensington and Bayswater

Our tactical voting recommendation in Kensington and Bayswater:
Vote Labour

Why vote Labour in Kensington and Bayswater?

Kensington and Bayswater is the successor to the previous Kensington constituency, which went to Labour by 20 votes in 2017 and to the Conservatives by 150 votes. Every vote counts in this tightly contested part of London. The election in this constituency in 2019 was unusual in that there was a serious Liberal Democrat campaign. These special factors do not apply in 2024 and neither the Lib Dems nor the Greens are targeting it. Latest polling shows Labour narrowly ahead of Conservatives. Lib Dem and Green supporters voting tactically for Labour will be in good company; it is one of the constituencies where people are most interested in casting an effective tactical vote against the Conservative government.

Tactical voting decision based on

Current MP
Polling
Local factors

Which parties look like they are targeting Kensington and Bayswater?

It looks like Kensington and Bayswater is a Labour target seat.

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About our data

Polling: Voting Intention for Kensington and Bayswater

MRP polling by Survation:

Selector of different research dates
30 Mar
04 Jun
15 Jun
Conservative 25.29%
Labour 47.59%
Liberal Democrats 14.89%
Reform 8.36%
Green 2.59%
Other 1.07%
Updated: 15 June 20:20

Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.

How many people intend to vote tactically in Kensington and Bayswater?

47%

What's happened in Kensington and Bayswater

Energy Bills

59%

Percentage of constituents who are worried about not being able to pay their energy bills in the next year
Source: Survation MRP for 38 Degrees (February 2023)

Food Banks (Local)

137,248

visits (April 2017 - March 2018)

384,477

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Food Banks (Great Britain)

40,898

visits (April 2009 - March 2010)

2,986,203

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Justice

1 in 25

robberies, burglaries, and other thefts solved in your constabulary (June 2019 - June 2022)
Source: Home Office (2019 - 2022)

Ambulance Wait Times

38m 14s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2018)

1h 30m 56s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2023)
Source: NHS England (November 2018 - 2023)

Housing

167,460

people are estimated to be homeless in your region
Source: Shelter (December 2023)

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