Tactical voting

South West Hertfordshire

Our tactical voting recommendation in South West Hertfordshire:
Vote Lib Dem

Why vote Lib Dem in South West Hertfordshire?

This seat was formerly held by Conservative MP David Gauke who stood as an independent in 2019 losing to the Conservative candidate. These local factors are difficult for polling models to pick up. Labour is not obviously targeting this seat whereas the Liberal Democrats have had strong local election results recently. Labour and Green voters should lend their votes to the Liberal Democrats to stop the Conservatives winning here. The Conservatives will be squeezing the sizeable Reform Vote and there is a risk that if Labour and the Greens don’t vote tactically it will result in a Conservative hold here.

Tactical voting decision based on

Current MP
Polling
Local factors

Which parties look like they are targeting South West Hertfordshire?

It looks like South West Hertfordshire is a Liberal Democrats target seat.

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About our data

Polling: Voting Intention for South West Hertfordshire

MRP polling by Survation:

Selector of different research dates
30 Mar
04 Jun
15 Jun
Conservative 34.64%
Labour 34.54%
Liberal Democrats 10.93%
Reform 8.61%
Green 4.10%
Other 7.00%
Updated: 15 June 20:20

Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.

How many people intend to vote tactically in South West Hertfordshire?

40%

What's happened in South West Hertfordshire

Energy Bills

56%

Percentage of constituents who are worried about not being able to pay their energy bills in the next year
Source: Survation MRP for 38 Degrees (February 2023)

Food Banks (Local)

127,027

visits (April 2017 - March 2018)

324,477

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Food Banks (Great Britain)

40,898

visits (April 2009 - March 2010)

2,986,203

visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)

Justice

1 in 20

robberies, burglaries, and other thefts solved in your constabulary (June 2019 - June 2022)
Source: Home Office (2019 - 2022)

Ambulance Wait Times

52m 23s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2018)

1h 40m 3s

Time in which 90% of emergency calls are responded to (November 2023)
Source: NHS England (November 2018 - 2023)

Housing

19,936

people are estimated to be homeless in your region
Source: Shelter (December 2023)

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