Tactical voting
Caerfyrddin
Our tactical voting recommendation in Caerfyrddin:
Vote Labour
Why vote Labour in Caerfyrddin?
Caerfyrddin is a new constituency that combines the previous seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr with the Carmarthen part of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Plaid Cymru won the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat in 2019, although their MP was subsequently excluded from the party, while the Tories won Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Both constituencies were Labour in 1997 and 2001. Labour has been ahead in our polls since last year and is currently the best placed party to stop the Conservatives winning.
Tactical voting decision based on
Current MP
Polling
Local factors
Which parties look like they are targeting Caerfyrddin?
It looks like Caerfyrddin is a Labour and Plaid Cymru target seat.
Polling: Voting Intention for Caerfyrddin
MRP polling by Survation:
30 Mar
04 Jun
15 Jun
Conservative
16.11%
Labour
37.21%
Liberal Democrats
1.65%
Reform
9.58%
Green
6.55%
Plaid Cymru
28.63%
Other
0.21%
Updated: 15 June 20:20
Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.
Remember, polling data alone should not be used for tactical voting. It's important to consider local factors and which party holds the seat.
How many people intend to vote tactically in Caerfyrddin?
37%
What's happened in Caerfyrddin
Energy Bills
58%
Percentage of constituents who are worried about not being able to pay their energy bills in the next year
Source: Survation MRP for 38 Degrees (February 2023)
Food Banks (Local)
65,616
visits (April 2017 - March 2018)100,362
visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)
Food Banks (Great Britain)
40,898
visits (April 2009 - March 2010)2,986,203
visits (April 2022 - March 2023)
Source: Trussell Trust (April 2023)
Justice
1 in 25
robberies, burglaries, and other thefts solved in your constabulary (June 2019 - June 2022)
Source: Home Office (2019 - 2022)
Housing
12,537
people are estimated to be homeless in your region
Source: Shelter (December 2023)
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